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Rise in planned maintenance, spike in breakdowns trigger ‘unwelcome’ Stage 6 return
Electricity Minister Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa has attributed the “unwelcome” resumption of Stage 6 loadshedding, during which business and residential areas experience rotational cuts for as much as half of the hours in the day, to a combination of higher planned maintenance and a spike in unplanned breakdowns.
In South Africa, approximately 85 percent, of the nation’s electricity is generated via coal-fired power stations. Despite environmental concerns, coal will continue to provide the majority of South Africa’s power for the next decade, although the share from renewables will grow rapidly. South Africa is the world’s 14th-largest emitter of greenhouse gases and seeks to improve its poor environmental performance.
During a virtual briefing convened after Eskom reported that it would implement Stage 6 until further notice, Ramokgopa reported that Eskom had started ramping up planned maintenance as it exited the high-demand winter period, during which such outages had been capped at 2 500 MW.
Over the past seven days, an average of 5 844 MW had been removed for planned outages, which Eskom generation head Bheki Nxumalo said was in line with its outage schedule and which did not represent an overly aggressive rampup for the start of the summer maintenance period.
However, the ramp-up had coincided with a spike in unplanned breakdowns, which breached 17 290 MW on September 5 and had averaged more than 15 500 MW for the period since August 28, while partial load losses had averaged above 5
895 MW.
Eskom has indicated previously that the intensity of loadshedding will significantly rise every time unplanned breakdowns increased above 15 000 MW.
Nxumalo said generation problems started to become acute on September 2, when it lost units at Hendrina, Arnot, Drakensberg, Tutuka, Duvha and Kendal, which depleted its pumped hydro reserves and resulted in an intensification in the stages of loadshedding. The situation could also not be recovered on Sunday and Monday, owing to the loss of units at Majuba, Kendal, Medupi and Kriel.
However, he reported that he expected that various units would be returned in the coming days, which would enable Eskom to taper down loadshedding towards the latter part of the working week.
Any notion of the fleet having been run harder during the recent BRICS summit, when cuts were reduced to low levels, was also dismissed out of hand.
However, Ramokgopa insisted that there would be no compromise on planned maintenance, particularly now that Eskom, in line with the R254-billion debt-relief package extended to it by the National Treasury, finally had the financial certainty to prepare for such outages and to secure the necessary spares and skills.
The Minister further insisted that loadshedding was implemented regardless of events and said that Eskom could, thus, not guarantee that there would be no cuts during the Rugby World Cup, in which the Springboks were seeking to defend their title as world champions.
Question 1 (20 Marks)
Electricity Minister Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa has attributed the “unwelcome” resumption of Stage 6 loadshedding, during which business and residential areas experience rotational cuts for as much as half of the hours in the day, to a combination of higher planned maintenance and a spike in unplanned breakdowns.
1.1 Discuss the predominant risk category associated with “unplanned breakdowns” of Eskom power plants. (6 Marks)
1.2 Following the debt relief by the National Treasury, Eskom’s funds which were initially planned for debt servicing can be channelled to various initiatives to reduce loadshedding. If Eskom is to invest such funds into a solar plant, determine and examine the risk categories that Eskom would be exposed to. (16 Marks)
Question 2 (20 Marks)
In South Africa, approximately 85 percent, of the nation’s electricity is generated via coal-fired power stations. Despite environmental concerns, coal will continue to provide the majority of South Africa’s power for the next decade, although the share from renewables will grow rapidly. South Africa is the world’s 14th-largest emitter of greenhouse gases and seeks to improve its poor environmental performance.
Critically evaluate how Eskom’s coal-fired power stations impact on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) [SDG 3 and
SDG 13].
Question 3 (20 Marks)
The Minister further insisted that loadshedding was implemented regardless of events and said that Eskom could, thus, not guarantee that there would be no cuts during the Rugby World Cup, in which the Springboks were seeking to defend their
title as world champions.
Examine reputational risk in the context of Eskom’s power cuts during the Rugby World Cup which attracts sport tourists and international brands into the country; and consider the measures that Eskom could institute to mitigate this risk.
Question 4 (20 Marks)
Critically discuss the steps in the risk management process that Eskom could use to reduce the impact of “unplanned breakdowns” of Eskom power plants.
Question 5 (20 Marks)
5.1 Critically evaluate the FOUR (4) major parts of Integrated Risk Management (IRM) that can be used by Eskom. (16 Marks)
5.2 Examine TWO (2) operational loss prevention activities that Eskom could use to reduce the frequency and or the severity of events leading to operational losses. (4 Marks)
Answers to Above Case Study Questions
Answer 1: The predominant risk category associated with unplanned breakdowns of Eskom power plants can be best related to the operational risk category. Operational risks are mainly faced because of inefficiency in the existing processes of the organisation, and in the given case scenario of EsKom, the unplanned breakdown is an indication of failure in its existing operational processes.
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